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WTI Crude —

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US CPI (3-mo annualized) —

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Model fit (β) —

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Target price (Base) —

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Valuation model · live

Ralph Lauren FCFF valuation · FY2026-Q4 to FY2028-Q3

Base case uses the current assumption set. Bear and Bull apply WTI and CPI shocks through the fitted sensitivity regression; every output below — FCFF bridge, driver charts, target-price math — updates on apply.

Run ID R_20260419_065512_001

Override count 0

Forecast horizon FY2026-Q4 to FY2028-Q3

Scenario contract Base / Bear / Bull

WATCH

Assumption set A_mini_project_defaults

Assumptions saved Default mini-project values

Diluted shares (live) 62.40m

Base target price $420.42 NTM FCFF $875.5m Sum of forecast Q5–Q8

Bull target price $464.59 NTM FCFF $958.7m Upside case

Bear target price $331.41 NTM FCFF $708.4m Downside case

Bull − Bear range $464.59 − $331.41 Spread 31.7% of base Peer FCFF-yield × NTM FCFF − net debt ÷ shares

War Room · Oil Shock

Future Oil Curve — Editable Monthly Path

Live Target Price $420.42

β_oil → GM: —
Base TG: $420.42
GM Δ (live): —
TG Δ (live): —

Market Pricing

War Mode holds every non-oil assumption at default. The live target price is a linear estimate (β_oil × mean monthly shock); Apply & Rebuild re-runs the full model on the server.

How Market Pricing works

Two independent views of RL's target price, averaged 50/50:

Fundamental (50%) — the DCF-via-peers TG that your oil curve drives through β_oil → gross margin → FCFF (same live value War Mode already shows).
Market-implied (50%) — your mean oil shock propagated through the post-2022 oil ↔ S&P 500 correlation (ρ ≈ −0.90), then through RL's equity β of 1.30 to the S&P, applied to RL's current spot price.

Δoil → ΔS&P = ρ · Δoil → ΔRL = β · ΔS&P
Market TG  = RL_spot × (1 + ΔRL)
Blended TG = ½ · Fundamental TG + ½ · Market TG

Since the 2022 energy shock, supply-driven oil spikes have been meaningfully negative for equities — this toggle lets you see both a fundamentals-first view and a market-reaction view of the same oil assumption. When no oil edit is made, the blend settles near the midpoint between analyst TG and market spot.

Assumption Studio

Drag. Type. Apply.

0 active

Revenue drivers

Price · Volume · Mix

Price effect

default 2.10%

Volume effect

default 0.88%

Mix effect

default 0.02%

P&L & margins

Income-statement paths

Gross margin

default 65.05%

OpEx margin

default 53.81%

EBIT bridge

default 0.32%

DA margin

default 3.92%

Interest burden

default 0.58%

Tax rate

default 21.05%

Exogenous shocks

Oil & CPI scenario inputs

Bear and Bull are defined only by their oil and CPI shocks relative to Base.

Shock Base Bear Bull

Oil

Base oil shock

default 0.00%

Bear oil shock

default 10.00%

Bull oil shock

default -5.00%

Cons.

Base CPI shock (pp)

default 0.00 pp

Bear CPI shock (pp)

default 1.00 pp

Bull CPI shock (pp)

default -0.50 pp

Oil shock flows to COGS YoY via β_oil = 0.658 (R² 52%), then translates to a gross-margin slope of −(1−gm_base)·β — input-cost pass-through. CPI shock flows to DIO at a 2-quarter lag via β_cpi = 977.6 (R² 81%). CapEx, dividends, buybacks, and the cash floor are held flat at RL's trailing-four-quarter averages.

Scenario driver map

Click a scenario to focus it across all three charts

Hover a chart to read any quarter; click to pin. Esc clears.

Base case: current assumption set. Bear & Bull: WTI and CPI shocks applied through the fitted regression.

Assumption Spotlight

Revenue build assumptions

Hover a quarter to read the value; click to pin.

Exogenous Driver

Oil price paths

Shared crosshair — hover to align all three charts.

Exogenous Driver

CPI 3M annualized paths

Base carries the current live CPI; Bear and Bull apply ±pp shocks.

Scenario Compare

Base, Bear, and Bull at a glance

Click a card to focus that scenario across every chart above.

FCFF Bridge

Quarter-level base output table

Base-case operating outputs at the current assumption set.

Period	Revenue	Gross Profit	EBIT	Delta NWC	CapEx	CFO	FCFF	Cash End	Net Debt
FY2026-Q4	$2,081.8m	$1,256.4m	$23.2m	$-133.5m	$75.6m	$203.5m	$134.9m	$1,971.9m	$421.7m
FY2027-Q1	$1,949.0m	$1,326.7m	$237.3m	$-34.1m	$127.7m	$324.0m	$206.6m	$1,795.8m	$597.8m
FY2027-Q2	$2,233.0m	$1,454.7m	$316.9m	$317.2m	$79.0m	$61.5m	$-6.9m	$1,568.3m	$825.3m
FY2027-Q3	$2,511.2m	$1,631.3m	$383.1m	$-349.0m	$75.3m	$736.5m	$672.0m	$2,107.7m	$285.9m
FY2027-Q4	$2,290.7m	$1,382.5m	$25.5m	$87.1m	$83.2m	$-10.0m	$-85.6m	$1,805.4m	$588.2m
FY2028-Q1	$2,206.8m	$1,502.2m	$268.7m	$-32.0m	$144.5m	$360.1m	$227.2m	$1,599.3m	$794.3m
FY2028-Q2	$2,461.6m	$1,603.6m	$349.3m	$344.4m	$87.1m	$73.0m	$-2.3m	$1,353.7m	$1,039.9m
FY2028-Q3	$2,703.4m	$1,756.1m	$412.5m	$-388.5m	$81.1m	$805.6m	$736.2m	$1,947.2m	$446.4m

Live Valuation Inputs

Pulled from FMP

Diluted shares 62.40m

Source FMP · 2025-12-27

Peer median FCFF yield 3.28%

Peer basket 7 peers (live)

Shares update daily from FMP income-statement; peer FCFF yields update daily from FMP key-metrics-ttm. Use the header Refresh macro button to force an immediate pull.

FCFF-Yield Valuation

Target-price bridge

Complete

Median peer FCFF yield 3.28%

Base NTM FCFF $875.5m

Implied enterprise value $26,680.6m

Implied equity value $26,234.1m

Target price $420.42

Comps Table

Manual peer FCFF-yield inputs

live_cache/fundamentals.json

Peer	Source date	Share price	Enterprise value	FCFF	FCFF yield	Include	Notes
TPR	2026-04-19T03:48:20+00:00	$155.85	$36,018,464,317.0m	$470,789,333.0m	1.31%	Yes	Live FMP TTM
CPRI	2026-04-19T03:48:20+00:00	$20.91	$4,471,078,788.0m	$5,071,000,000.0m	113.42%	Yes	Live FMP TTM
PVH	2026-04-19T03:48:20+00:00	$94.17	$7,911,471,592.0m	$-220,721,745.0m	-2.79%	Yes	Live FMP TTM
LULU	2026-04-19T03:48:20+00:00	$167.28	$19,615,043,655.0m	$1,089,941,392.0m	5.56%	Yes	Live FMP TTM
HBI	2026-04-19T03:48:20+00:00	$6.47	$4,736,898,956.0m	$778,097,881.0m	16.43%	Yes	Live FMP TTM
GES	2026-04-19T03:48:20+00:00	$16.81	$3,166,931,649.0m	$103,915,136.0m	3.28%	Yes	Live FMP TTM
UAA	2026-04-19T03:48:20+00:00	$6.49	$4,555,831,740.0m	$17,466,707.0m	0.38%	Yes	Live FMP TTM

Three-Statement Integrity

Balance-sheet tie-out & cash-flow reconciliation

WATCH

Balance sheet ties to the penny across all 8 forecast periods — non-current-liability plug absorbs deferred-tax / STI / other non-modelled movements (standard 3-statement practice). Max plug drift from anchor: $143.3346m (13.22%). Thresholds: plug drift pass ≤10% / watch ≤25%. CFS max gap: $0.0001m.

Period	Total Assets	Total Liab	Total Equity	Gap	Plug drift	Plug %	Status	CFO	CFI	CFF	Δ Cash	CFS?
FY2026-Q4	$8,378.7m	$5,638.6m	$2,740.2m	0.000	-101.1	9.32%	pass	203.5	-75.6	-190.1	-62.1	✓
FY2027-Q1	$8,267.8m	$5,694.8m	$2,573.0m	0.000	-56.1	5.18%	pass	324.0	-127.7	-372.5	-176.1	✓
FY2027-Q2	$8,319.0m	$5,671.5m	$2,647.5m	-0.000	64.2	5.92%	pass	61.5	-79.0	-209.9	-227.5	✓
FY2027-Q3	$8,453.2m	$5,608.4m	$2,844.8m	0.000	-39.9	3.69%	pass	736.5	-75.3	-121.8	539.4	✓
FY2027-Q4	$8,493.7m	$5,811.9m	$2,681.7m	0.000	-143.3	13.22%	watch	-10.0	-83.2	-209.1	-302.3	✓
FY2028-Q1	$8,442.4m	$5,949.9m	$2,492.5m	-0.000	-86.8	8.0%	pass	360.1	-144.5	-421.7	-206.1	✓
FY2028-Q2	$8,427.7m	$5,853.1m	$2,574.6m	0.000	39.4	3.64%	pass	73.0	-87.1	-231.4	-245.5	✓
FY2028-Q3	$8,511.7m	$5,724.7m	$2,787.0m	-0.000	-81.2	7.49%	pass	805.6	-81.1	-131.1	593.4	✓

Roll-forward schedules (PP&E · Equity · Debt)

PP&E roll-forward

Period	Open	CapEx	Depr	Close
FY2026-Q4	2,211.5	75.6	89.2	2,197.9
FY2027-Q1	2,197.9	127.7	78.5	2,247.1
FY2027-Q2	2,247.1	79.0	85.1	2,241.0
FY2027-Q3	2,241.0	75.3	76.7	2,239.7
FY2027-Q4	2,239.7	83.2	98.1	2,224.7
FY2028-Q1	2,224.7	144.5	88.8	2,280.4
FY2028-Q2	2,280.4	87.1	93.8	2,273.7
FY2028-Q3	2,273.7	81.1	82.6	2,272.3

Equity roll-forward

Period	Open	NI	Div	Buybk	SBC	Close
FY2026-Q4	2,888.4	11.4	63.1	127.0	30.4	2,740.2
FY2027-Q1	2,740.2	177.1	59.4	313.0	28.3	2,573.0
FY2027-Q2	2,573.0	239.5	63.9	146.0	44.9	2,647.5
FY2027-Q3	2,647.5	291.7	58.8	63.0	27.4	2,844.8
FY2027-Q4	2,844.8	12.6	69.4	139.7	33.4	2,681.7
FY2028-Q1	2,681.7	200.5	67.3	354.4	32.0	2,492.5
FY2028-Q2	2,492.5	264.0	70.4	161.0	49.5	2,574.6
FY2028-Q3	2,574.6	314.0	63.3	67.9	29.5	2,787.0

Debt roll-forward

Period	Open	Close
FY2026-Q4	4,014.0	4,014.0
FY2027-Q1	4,014.0	4,014.0
FY2027-Q2	4,014.0	4,014.0
FY2027-Q3	4,014.0	4,014.0
FY2027-Q4	4,014.0	4,014.0
FY2028-Q1	4,014.0	4,014.0
FY2028-Q2	4,014.0	4,014.0
FY2028-Q3	4,014.0	4,014.0

FMP Verification (mandatory)

Historical anchor vs raw 10-Q (FMP)

PASS

Anchor FY2026 Q3 (2025-12-27) · FMP filing 2026-Q3 (2025-12-27) · tolerance 2.0%. Any row flagged ✗ is a data-quality drift between our historical pack and the source filing.

Line	Ours ($m)	FMP ($m)	Δ %	Match
Cash	2,034.0	2,034.0	0.0%	✓
Short-Term Investments	218.9	218.9	0.0%	✓
Accounts Receivable	460.7	460.7	0.0%	✓
Inventory	1,149.4	1,149.4	0.0%	✓
Other Current Assets	68.3	68.3	0.0%	✓
Total Current Assets	4,189.3	4,189.3	0.0%	✓
Net PP&E	2,211.5	2,211.5	0.0%	✓
Total Assets	7,813.8	7,813.8	0.0%	✓
Accounts Payable	543.7	543.7	0.0%	✓
Other Current Liabilities	791.3	791.3	0.0%	✓
Total Current Liabilities	1,995.6	1,995.6	0.0%	✓
Total Debt	4,014.0	4,014.0	0.0%	✓
Total Liabilities	4,925.4	4,925.4	0.0%	✓
Total Equity	2,888.4	2,888.4	0.0%	✓

Ralph Lauren FCFF valuation · FY2026-Q4 to FY2028-Q3

Future Oil Curve — Editable Monthly Path

Drag. Type. Apply.

Price · Volume · Mix

Income-statement paths

Oil & CPI scenario inputs

Click a scenario to focus it across all three charts

Consensus oil path and consensus CPI path.

Higher oil and softer demand with partial buyback restraint.

Lower oil and firmer demand with modestly stronger capital returns.

Revenue build assumptions

Oil price paths

CPI 3M annualized paths

Base, Bear, and Bull at a glance

FY2028-Q3

FY2028-Q3

FY2028-Q3

Quarter-level base output table

Manual peer FCFF-yield inputs

Balance-sheet tie-out & cash-flow reconciliation

PP&E roll-forward

Equity roll-forward

Debt roll-forward

Historical anchor vs raw 10-Q (FMP)